Going on the basis of the costs of the Danish offshore wind farm near Vindeby, it seems that the wind farm produces electricity for costs that are 50-60 per cent higher than an equivalent onshore scheme. Since the proposals for large wind farms came out (in NFFO-3, 1994) in the 4 to 5p/kWh region it seems likely that offshore wind power could deliver electricity in the 6 - 8p/kWh range.
Some consultants, including Garrard/Hassan, believe that offshore wind turbine designs making use of floats and anchors could reduce costs. Thus there could be a prospect for near-term cost reductions below the 6p/kWh mark.
The 1994 round of renewable energy contracts involves about 20MW of biomass projects at over 8p/kWh, so it may not seem unreasonable to have offshore wind power contracts which are likely to go for less than this. Of course the last renewable round reveals that a continued onshore programme is important to the process of reducing costs. However the encouragement of offshore developments should now be a pressing additional priority, with wave power being a good candidate in the near future." The first announcement of the basic capacity requirements for the next round of the NFFO should emerge later this year; for formal allocation, following the usual bidding process, sometime early next year.
Offshore wind is obviously a strong contender - assuming that is that the DTI wants to expand the NFFO by setting up new tranches, or at least keep it going by introducing tranches for new entrants to replace those technologies which have succeeded at becoming commercially viable on an independent basis. SERA Energy Group can be contacted at 11 Goodwin Street, London, N4 3HQ.
The main aim at TF is to identify general R & D opportunities rather than just pick specific technological `winners', but inevitably the media has focused on some `headline' examples - e.g. consumer gadgets like central locking houses and personal pollution monitors. Overall though its a useful exercise, with a welcome emphasis on the longer term.
The Energy sector report stresses environmental concerns, although otherwise it is fairly predictable : the bulk of the proposals relate to improvements in the extraction and use of fossil fuels. But the Energy report does single out photovoltaics as a key new renewable technology. However, it is dismissive of wave and tidal energy, since it says these fall outside the 20 year time frame used. By contrast, these technologies are explicity given top priority in one of the other forsight sector studies- on Agricultural, Natural Resources and the Environment.
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