Renew On Line (UK) 31

Extracts from the May-June 2001 edition of Renew
These extracts only represent about 25% of it

Foresight Saga Continues

A new round of the Office of Science and Technolgy’s Technology Foresight (TF) exercise is underway. The first such exercise, with 15 panels of experts looking twenty years ahead to see what technologies might be relevant, was completed, following major consultation exercise, in 1995. In the energy sector, it was concluded that PV solar and nuclear decommissioning could be the big things (see Renew 96,97).

The new TF exercise is looking further ahead- forty years. The panel structure has been reorganised, following a consultation on the process (see Renew 118). In the previous round their were seperate Energy and Natural Environment panels, and this had led to some interesting contradictions - the Environment panel were much more keen on tidal and wave energy than the Energy panel, and subsequently this area was picked up by a newly created Marine panel (see Renew 121/122). In the new exercise, the Energy and Natural Environment Panels have been combined, and have established an Energy Task force. This recently produced a consultative document ‘Fuelling the Future’, which includes four socio-economic scenarios for the UK, to set the scene for a discussion of which technologies might be relevant.

The scenarios are, in much simplified terms:

1. World Markets- a world defined by private consumption and globalised high growth economies. (what you might call the ‘WTO’ scenario for short!)
2. Provincial Enterprise- a protectionist, isolationist and nationalistic future with lower growth, interestingly, seen as being ‘incapable of persisting for a significant period’ (the‘Bush’ scenario?)
3. Global Sustainability- ecological values enshrined in economic decisions and global environmental controls (the Kyoto scenario?)
4. Local Stewardship- a decentralised low energy green community-centred future (Hobbit Socialism?).

It’s pretty easy to see which technologies might fit well in to each of these, e.g. not much nuclear in 4, but there are some surprises. For example, it is suggested that there would not be any nuclear in 1. since it was not profitable enough, but there might be some in 2. Renewables figure in all of them, except 2. to some extent, with smaller scale units being important in 4. The report suggests that, overall, one of the key technological requirements for all scenarios will be for more decentralised approaches to power networks, especially in 4. The buzzwords are familiar- dispersed, locally embedded micro power based on downsized renewables, chp, hydrogen grids, and fuel cells/ stores. It’s nice to see that these ideas are now centre stage, and it will be interesting to see what emerges from the consultation on this report- which will feed in to the wider TF exercise.

But, so far, overall, this is a rather loosely defined analysis- there is no quantification and very little by way of analysis of potential conflicts and contradictions, although it is noted that disparities between rich and poor might become more marked in scenario 1. and social unrest was one possible outcome of 2. See you in 4.?

For details see http://www.foresight.gov.uk   then look under Energy and Natural Environment publications.

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