10. Sustainable Development and Climate Change

Finalising Kyoto

COP-7, the Seventh Conference of Parties to the UN climate change accord, as originally agreed at Kyoto, met last year in Marrakesh, and thrashed out some of the ground rules for how the various Kyoto mechanisms are to work (see Renew 135, p14). But there are still a lot of details to sort, and that will be the task of COP-8 later this year. It may seem very bureaucratic, but that’s the way international agreements are organised. So now we have MOP’s (Meetings of Parties) to go alongside COP’s, and Supervisory Committees, to oversee Joint Implementation (JI) projects, and Executive Committees for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) plus new rules on emission trading, the third main Kyoto mechanism. That all goes along with the rest of the Kyoto lexicon- Additionality, Baseline, Supplementary, Fungability, etc.- and now there are yet more- AAUs, ERU’s,CERs and RMUs- for the various types of carbon saving.

As Stephen Peake from EERU, writing in ReFocus (Jan/Feb 2002), explains ‘The reduction of one tonne of CO2 of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere (or absorption from the atmosphere) has the same impact on the climate no matter how its done or what mechanism facilitated it. However, a combination of politics and methodological issues in the climate regime has resulted in distinctions being made between emissions reductions achieved domestically and through each of the three Kyoto mechanisms. Reductions under each of the mechanisms have even been given their own labels. It’s a bit like having several different currency units but all with the same value. The central currency is the assigned amount unit (AAU). This is how the Kyoto targets are specified and it is against the totting up of AAUs that compliance with the Protocol will be determined. Emission Trading involves the direct debiting and crediting of assigned amount units (AAUs). JI projects produce emission reduction units (ERUs), while CDM projects produce certified emission reduction units (CERs). Marrakesh produced a further unit, removal units (RMUs) that apply to sinks projects.’

What Next?

The EU formally ratified the Kyoto accord in May, and it should be ratified by sufficient countries to make it binding in time for the World Summit on Sustainable Development ("Rio+10") Aug 26 - Sept 4, 2002, in Johannesburg. See next page. Then comes UNFCCC COP8 in October 28 - November 8, 2002.

For a summary see: www.climatenetwork.org/578%20final.pdf

The World Summit on Sustainable Development

‘Ten years after the Rio Earth Summit, we are still far from ending the economic and environmental marginalisation that afflict billions of people,’ says Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin. ‘Despite the prosperity of the 1990s, the divide between rich and poor is widening in many countries, undermining social and economic stability. And pressures on the world’s natural systems, from global warming to the depletion and degradation of resources such as fisheries and fresh water, have further destabilized societies.’

Views like this will be common amongst those assembling in Johannesburg for the UN World Summit on Sustainable Development in August. Worldwatch has dedicated the 2002 issue of their annual State of the World reports to this conference. In the report Foreword, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan notes that "all of us should understand not only that we face common threats, but also that there are common opportunities to be seized if we respond to this challenge as a single human community."

The report highlights a number of social and environmental advances since Rio, including declining deaths from pneumonia, diarrhea, and tuberculosis and the phasing out of production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in industrial countries.

But many other important trends continue to worsen. Deaths from AIDS increased more than six-fold over the 1990s; global emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide climbed more than nine percent; and twenty-seven percent of the world’s coral reefs are now severely damaged, up from 10 % at the time of Rio. Worldwatch point to several significant impediments that have slowed progress towards building a sustainable world:

* Environmental policies remain a low priority: The growing number of international environmental treaties suffer from weak commitments and inadequate funding.

* The U.N. Environment Programme has struggled to maintain its budget of around $100m p.a. At the same time, global military expenditures are running at more than $2 bn a day.

* Foreign aid is stagnating: Despite a 30% plus expansion in global economic output since Rio, aid spending has declined substantially, falling from $69bn in 1992 to $53 bn in 2000.

* Third world debt is worsening: Despite pledges at Rio to reduce it, the total burden in developing and transition countries has climbed 34% since Rio, reaching $2.5 trillion in 2000.

Increased financial and political support for international social and environmental programs is a necessary but not sufficient condition for success in the transition to a sustainable world, Worldwatch argue, and the active involvement of other powerful international actors, such as NGO’s (non-governmental organizations) and the business community, will also be essential. NGO’s have, they say, ‘activated millions of people in a series of important campaigns in the 1990s, including the Kyoto Protocol on climate change’.

Worldwatch say that ‘in the absence of a credible alternative, the Kyoto Protocol remains the best way to achieve global action on climate change’ and they call for early ratification.

Lets hope this is more than just another international junket which produces sonorous sounding recommendations, but little action. Action is, after all, not impossible. As Worldwatch note "South Africa is living proof of the power of people all over the world working together to bring about change. The demise of apartheid is an inspiring example of a rapid transformation that was almost unimaginable beforehand."

Worldwatch Institute 1776 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Suite 800 Washington, DC 20036 Tel: (202) 452-1999 Fax: (202) 296-.7365

e-mail: worldwatch@worldwatch.org website: www.worldwatch.org

State of the World 2002 is US$15.95 plus $5 handling outside US.

Kyoto Lite

President Bush has announced a ‘Clean Skies & Global Climate Change Initiative’, which, along with proposals to cut emissions of nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and mercury by around 70% through a market based cap-and-trade approach, includes a proposal to link the USA’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the growth rate of the US economy. By index linking emissions in this way, the US can continue to have economic growth and also continue to increase emissions. Launching the plan earlier this year he said ‘America and the world share this common goal: we must foster economic growth in ways that protect our environment. We must encourage growth that will provide a better life for citizens, while protecting the land, the water, and the air that sustain life’. He went on ‘This new approach is based on this common-sense idea: that economic growth is key to environmental progress, because it is growth that provides the resources for investment in clean technologies’. By contrast, ‘the approach taken under the Kyoto protocol would have required the United States to make deep and immediate cuts in our economy to meet an arbitrary target. It would have cost our economy up to $400 billion and we would have lost 4.9 million jobs.’

However, he reaffirmed the USA’s ‘commitment to the UN Framework Convention and it’s central goal, to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate. Our immediate goal is to reduce America’s greenhouse gas emissions relative to the size of our economy. My administration is committed to cutting our nation’s greenhouse gas intensity - how much we emit per unit of economic activity - by 18 percent over the next 10 years. This will set America on a path to slow the growth of our greenhouse gas emissions and, as science justifies, to stop and then reverse the growth of emissions.’

He set a target of reducing greenhouse gas intensity by 18 % by the year 2012, which he said ‘will prevent over 500 million metric tons of greenhouse gases from going into the atmosphere over the course of the decade. And that is the equivalent of taking 70 million cars off the road.’ In addition the USA will ‘promote renewable energy production and clean coal technology, as well as nuclear power, which produces no greenhouse gas emissions. And we will work to safely improve fuel economy for our cars and our trucks. Overall, my budget devotes $4.5 bn to addressing climate change - more than any other nation's commitment in the entire world. This is an increase of more than $700 m over last year's budget.’ This will include $588m for R&D on energy conservation technologies and $408m for R&D on renewables. Bush added that his energy plan, provides $4.6 bn over the next five years in clean energy tax incentives to encourage purchases of hybrid and fuel cell vehicles, to promote residential solar energy, and to reward investments in wind, solar and biomass energy production. And, he noted, ‘we will look for ways to increase the amount of carbon stored by America's farms and forests’. He promised that, if, by 2012, ‘our progress is not sufficient and sound science justifies further action, the US will respond with additional measures that may include broad-based market programs as well as additional incentives and voluntary measures designed to accelerate technology development and deployment’.

Finally, with Jo’burg no doubt in mind, he said ‘the US will not interfere with the plans of any nation that chooses to ratify the Kyoto protocol. But I will intend to work with nations, especially the poor and developing nations, to show the world that there is a better approach’.

A mixed package then, with some funding gains, but also some evasions- basically a voluntary system based on tax concessions and trading incentives, which will allow US emissions to continue to rise, as long as their rate of growth is below the rate of economic growth. So, according to the NRDC, emissions could actually rise by 14 % by 2012.