N. American News

US Emissions rise

The US has announced the largest increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the last five years, with, in 2000, carbon dioxide emissions increasing by 3.1% compared to the previous year. The Energy Department's statistical arm, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) attributes the increase to strong economic growth in 2000, the replacement of some hydro with fossil-fuel generation, and a return to "normal" weather patterns. The annual rise is second only to the 3.4 % increase in 1996, and well below the decade’s average increase of 1.%.

The EIA’s report showed that transport-related carbon dioxide emissions increased, as did emissions from the residential, commercial and power-generating sectors. Industry-related CO2 emissions remained flat, possibly due to low growth in energy-intensive industries and efficiency improvements.

U.S. energy demand is expected to increase by one third over the next two decades, as businesses and consumers use even more oil and electricity to fuel a growing US economy, according to the the EIA.

Growth in commercial buildings and personal travel, combined with slower increases in fuel efficiency for cars and trucks, is expected to account for the large increase in energy demand by 2020. According to the EIA’s annual report, total U.S. demand for all types of energy is projected to jump from 99 quadrillion British Thermal Units (the delightfully antique unit still used in the USA ) in 2000 to 131 quadrillion Btu in 2020. The latter is higher than what the EIA projected for 2020 in its annual report last year. Domestic crude oil production is projected to decline slightly by 2020 to 5.6 million barrels per day (bpd). As a result, foreign imports are expected to account for 62% of U.S. oil supplies by 2020, up from 53% in 2000, the EIA said. However, that rise is lower than the 64 % -share for oil imports by 2020 that EIA forecast in its report last year. The difference is due to higher expected domestic production from new oil fields in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve - opened up, against strong environmental opposition, by Bush, with, sadly, support from some key US TradeUnions, keen to underpin employment.

It doesn’t have to be this way

Development of policies on renewable energy and energy efficiency could create 1.3 million new jobs in the United States by 2020, according to the World Wildlife Fund. A total of 750,000 new jobs would be created over the next nine years, according to ‘Clean Energy: Jobs for America’s Future’. See www.worldwildlife.org

Gross domestic product would increase by $23 bn by 2010 and increase to $43.9 bn (net) by 2020.

‘This study shows that a responsible approach to energy policy can help us meet the challenge of climate change while still benefitting the economy and creating new jobs,’ says WWF. ‘A serious and sustained national effort to improve the energy efficiency of our cars, trucks and buildings will offer us a better future with sustainable economic growth and allow us to conserve irreplaceable wilderness refuges for future generations.’

A related benefit would be an additional $220 increase in annual wage and salary earnings per household by 2010, increasing to $400 per household by 2020. In addition, adoption of the WWF energy recommendations would allow the US to reduce its carbon emissions by 8.5% by 2010 (compared with a projected increase of 20%) and by 28% by 2020 (compared with a 36% rise). 20% of electricity generation in 2020 would come from wind, solar, biomass and geothermal, while oil consumption would decline by 8% by 2020, rather than increase by 315, saving money and reducing vulnerability to oil price shocks. Overall dependence on fossil fuels would decline 15% by 2020 rather than increasing by 40%, and homes and businesses would accumulate savings of $600 bn in that period.

WWF conclude "The study shows that these policies also create more jobs and offer greater economic benefits than can be generated by drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge despite the unsubstantiated claims of drilling proponents."

* The US Energy Administration, predicts that renewables will increase by 1.3% per year until 2020, but insiders fear that the collapse last year of large USbased energy trader Enron, and the possible end of the special US tax credit,may slow the expansion of windpower, the leading option in the USA.

US wants more Alcohol

A four-fold increase in renewable fuel use in the USA by 2016 would add $6.6 bn to the U.S. farm economy and 300,000 new jobs, while modestly raising consumer food prices, according to a study by by three pro-ethanol groups, the Renewable Fuels Association, the National Corn Growers Association, and the National Biodiesel Board.

Ethanol is strongly backed by the agricultural lobby in the USA and the new study was released the same day Senate Democrats unveiled an energy bill that called for a significant increase in renewable fuels. The farming lobby clearly hopes that the study will bolster congressional support to require all motor fuel to contain more ethanol, biodiesel and other renewable fuels, using surplus U.S. grain. However, as we reported in the Renew 135, although, US car makers are being encouraged to introduce ‘dual use’ vehicles, which can run on 85% ethanol, due to the lack of retail outlets for this fuel, in practice few cars are actually using it. But car makers still receive credits for building dual-use cars, allowing them to lower the average gas mileage of the rest of their fleets. So the end result is actually increased emissions overall from increased petrol use.

* Ethanol is becoming all the rage. Australia has launched an ambitious ethanol programme as have China. The only trouble is that it is expensive.

US Green Power could grow by 50%

An extension of the U.S. tax credit for wind turbines and biomass generation facilities would increase green power output by 50%by 2020, according to a government analysis. The ‘Annual Energy Outlook 2002’ from the Energy Information Administration predicts that renewables will generate 15 gigawatts by 2020, based on the assumption that the current production tax credit for turbines and closed-loop biomass sources, worth 1.7c/kWh, will expire on Dec. 31 2001, as currently mandated. But if the tax credit was extended, then an extra 7GW could be installed by 2020. Even so, the report says that "Renewable technologies are projected to grow slowly because of the relatively low costs of fossil-fired generation and because competitive electricity markets favor less capital-intensive natural gas technologies over coal and baseload renewables."

Meanwhile, a Gallup Poll showed strong support for Renewables in the U.S. - with 91% of respondents favouring investments in "new sources of energy, such as solar, wind, and fuel cells", according to polls conducted in May and November last year. Support for nuclear power dropped from 48 % in May to 42 % in November. Gallup speculated that this drop "may well be linked to the events of September 11, which pointed out the potential vulnerability of nuclear power facilities to terrorist attacks".

Wave hits USA

Plans are underway to build a 1-MW offshore demonstration wave project near Neah Bay in Washington State. The project developer is start-up company AquaEnergy Group, Ltd. The local Clallam public utility district has committed to purchasing the power from the Makah Nation (a North American Indian tribe), which will own and operate the development when completed. "Once this permitting and development precedent has been set, we believe offshore wave power has the potential to satisfy 5% to 10% of total US power demand within 20 years," said Alla Weinstein, AquaEnergy CEO.

As currently designed, the project will rely on floating buoys moored about 60 feet apart in water 150 to 200 feet deep several miles offshore. Attached to a long underwater pump, the buoys move up and down from wave energy, which in turn creates a pumping action, producing pressurized seawater that is directed into a turbine driving a conventional electric generator. Power will be moved ashore with an underground cable. While this technology has been tested in Sweden, the US project is the first utility-scale application.

According to AquaEnergy, the technology is already cost-competitive. The project is expected to generate power at about 6 cents/kWh. If expanded to 100 MW, the cost could be as low as 4 to 5 cents/kWh, similar to hydropower, say project sponsors. "We are entering the market with the same cost characteristics that it has taken wind power 25 years to attain. And our cost-effectiveness will only improve with experience."

..and Canada

Farther north, BC Hydro intends to develop up to 4 MW of ocean wave power as part of a broader plan to install 20 MW of renewable energy generation on Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Currently, only about 20% of the electricity used on the island is produced locally. BC Hydro intends to install about 10 MW of wind, 6-8 MW of micro hydro energy and up to 4 MW of ocean wave energy on the island. The company received 10 proposals in response to its request for proposals for wave power from developers based in Norway, Denmark, the United Kingdom, the United States, Portugal and Australia. Four were short-listed and two are currently in final negotiations with the utility to participate in a joint venture. BC Hydro declined to name the two winning companies but did say the company will develop two plants: a near-shore project and an offshore project. "This is not an R&D exercise for us," said Brenda Goehring, spokesperson for BC Hydro. "If this turns out to be a viable resource, the potential is huge for North America."

Source: www.energyinsight.com