Renew On Line (UK) 39

Extracts from the Sept-Oct 2002 edition of Renew
These extracts only represent about 25% of it

12.Weather report 2080 - it will be wet and hot

‘Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom’ is a new set of scenarios prepared by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Tyndell Centre for Climate Change Research and University of East Anglia published by DEFRA which illustrates how the UK climate may change over the coming decades as a result of global warming. The UK Climate Impacts Programme co-ordinated the research.

The key findings of the report are :

* The country’s climate will become warmer. Annual temperatures averaged across the UK may rise by between 2 and 3.5 degrees C by the 2080’s. The degree of warming will be different in different parts of the UK and will depend on the level of global greenhouse gas emissions. Warming will generally be greatest in parts of the southeast, where temperatures may rise by up to 5 degrees C in summer by the 2080’s.

* Winters will become wetter and summers may become drier across all of the UK. The largest relative changes will be in the south and east where summer precipitation may decline by up to 50% by the 2080’s. Heavy winter precipitation will become more frequent, but the amount of snow may decline by 60% or more in parts of Scotland and up to 90% elsewhere by the 2080s, depending on region and scenario.

* Sea-levels are expected to rise around the UK. In line with previous predictions, sea-levels could be between 26 and 86 cm above the current level in southeast England by the 2080’s. This means that, at some east coast locations, extreme sea-levels that currently have a 2% chance of occurring in any given year, could occur 10 and 20 times more frequently by the 2080’s.

* The Gulf Stream may weaken in future but it is unlikely to completely ‘switch off’, or lead to a cooling of the UK climate within the next 100 years.

The scenarios were based on four contrasting scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions derived from the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The emission scenarios (Low, Medium-Low, Medium High and High Emissions) were used to drive a regional climate change model with a resolution of 50 km. The scenario results are published in a Briefing Report and a fuller Science Report which can be found at www.ukcip.org.uk/

Contacts for more information;

UK Climate Impacts Programme - Catherine Cook

enquiries@ukcip.org.uk tel 01865 432076.

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research - Dr Simon Torok tyndall@uea.ac.uk tel 01603 593906.

Hadley Centre for Climate Change Prediction - Dr Geoff Jenkins geoff.Jenkins@metoffice.com tel 01344 856653.

* Advisory Committee on Business & the Environment www.defra.gov.uk/environment/acbe.htm