Renew On Line (UK) 60
Extracts from NATTA's journal
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10. EU: 34% from renewables by 2020?
Europe could get 34% of its electricity from renewables by 2020, according to ‘FORRES 2020: Analysis of the renewable energy sources’ evolution up to 2020’. It says that wind will grow from 34 TWh in 2001 to 385 TWh in 2020 under a ‘business as usual’ (BAU) scenario, but would reach 461 TWh under a scenario that models the future evolution based on the currently available best practice. In parallel, solar PV would increase from 0.2 TWh to 8.8 TWh under BAU but 17.9 TWh under the best policy scenario, while solar thermal electric would grow from nothing in 2001 to 12.7 and 21.7TWh, respectively. Wave and tidal power would rise from 0 to 8.4 or 33.2, geothermal would expand from 6.3 to 7.5 or 8.2, biomass and biogas would increase from 37 to 141 or 338, while small-scale hydro would go from 38 TWh in 2001 to 44.3 TWH in 2020 under BAU or 48.4 TWH under the best policy scenario. Total supply of green power among the 25 countries would increase from 403 TWh to 900 TWh under BAU or 1,234 TWh by 2020 under the best policy scenario. Total power demand will increase from 2,960 TWh in 2001 to 4,009 or 3,583 TWh respectively, meaning that green power will rise from 13.6% of demand in 2001, to 22.5% under BAU, or 34.4% by 2020, under the best policy scenario. However the report says that this would require “immediate policy actions in most member states.”
The analysis was produced by a number of groups, including Fraunhofer ISI, EEG, ECOFYS, KEMA and REC.
The European Parliament has called for a 20% target for renewables in overall energy consumption in the EU by 2020, but Claude Turmes, a member of the Greens/EFA party from Luxembourg and a member of the Euro Parliamentary energy committee, has called for it to be increased to at least 25% with the upcoming Seventh Framework Programme for research (FP7) being revised to provide ‘increased funding for renewable sources of energy and energy efficiency’.
A report from the European Parliaments committee on industry, research and energy has also insisted that ‘in the 7th Framework Programme for Research & Technological Development (FP7), a minimum of Euro 300 million a year be dedicated to renewable energies and Euro 200m a year to energy efficiency, to compensate the historical bias in EU energy research programs’. It argues that ‘all non mature energy technologies need a certain amount of support in the first years of development’ and notes that, according to the IEA, only 8.2% of total energy R&D funds of OECD countries were allocated to renewables between 1974 & 2001. Source: ReFocus Weekly
Renewables around the EU
In 1997, Spain had 200 MW of wind turbine capacity, but annual growth rates of 30% have pushed this up to 8,263 MW, making Spain the global leader. And they seem to aim to stay ahead. An earlier government target of 13,000 MW by 2010 has been updated to 20,000 MW by 2011. That would mean that wind would be supplying 15% of national electricity, up from the current level of 6.5%. And overall the government wants 12.1% of energy to come from from renewables by 2010, with 30.3% of electricity coming from green power. To back this up, the Spanish government has approved a Euro 23.6 bn renewable energy initiative to 2010, although most of this is expected to come from the private sector.
Work has started on the world’s largest solar energy station, a 62 MW array with 350,000 PV panels covering 112 hectares- an area the size of 150 football pitches- near the southern Portuguese town of Moura. When completed, in 2009, the Girassol plant should be able to produce enough electricity to power 21,000 homes, and will have cost £168 m to install- with much of the capital having been raised locally. Moura’s town hall holds 90% of the capital on behalf of local investors.
According to the German Electricity Industry Association, the
proportion of electricity generated in
The use of renewables to generate electricity has expanded faster in
The 18.4 MW Pakri wind farm on the Gulf of
Renewables grew 50% in Ireland in 2005, to 2.2% of energy from 1.5% in 2003- with the electricty share growing by 22% and wind by 44%.
Aviation & Climate Change- EU response
With emissions from aviation continuing to rise, international pressure is growing for something to be done, with the European Union taking a lead. Having looked at some market-based solutions- airline ticket or departure taxes, emissions charges- the European Commission has concluded that the most cost-efficient and environmentally effective option would be to include emissions from aviation in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (‘ETS’), presumably in its second round starting in 2008.
However, the EC has also emphasises some existing efforts that it said
must be continued or strengthened, including improved Air Traffic Management,
which it says offer potential for efficiency improvements, in terms
of for example more direct flight routes and less queuing of aircraft.
But, this is a relatively small issue, and, in any case, you would think
that this is the sort of thing the industry would come up with when
and if economic pressure was imposed to reflect the full environmental
costs of their activities. Similarly for fuel efficiency- although
as the Tyndall Centre noted in its new study (see Renew 159) the scope
for that is limited to about a 1.7% p.a. improvement, whereas demand
in terms of passenger-kms was likely to rise
by 7% p.a. even under the low growth/high efficiency scenario. It concluded
that, unless something is done, aircraft emissions could be 20% of the
If aviation was included in the EU ETS, an emission cap would be set
and Aircraft operators would be allocated tradable emission allowances.
They would then be an incentive to to stay beneath the cap, so as to earn emission credits that
they could sell, or to avoid having to buy them. No caps have yet been
discussed but if for example emissions in 2012 were be capped at their
2008 levels, the EC says that would be equivalent to an emissions saving
of around 17% of otherwise projected increases. Depending on how tight
the cap was, then there might be some radical innovations- alternative
zero carbon fuels even- but the most likely thing to happen, at least
in the in the short to medium term, is increased prices, producing a
fall in demand i.e. less airtravel. However,
the EC claims that prices might only rise by at most 9 euro, depending
on the flight, and the result will be ‘a small reduction in the rate
at which demand grows’, of about 0.1-2.1% during 2008-12, assuming CO2
allowance prices of 10-30 euro. Interestingly it wants to impose these
caps on all aircraft using EU airport- not just EU based airlines.
It is now consulting on the idea- although the
* In the EU the direct greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions from aviation correspond to about 3% of total GHG emissions. However, this doesn’t include indirect warming effects, such as those from NOx emissions, contrails and cirrus cloud effects. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that aviation’s total impact is about 2 to 4 times higher than the effect of its past CO2 emissions alone. From 1990 to 2003, the EU’s GHG emissions from international aviation increased by 73%, or 4.3% per year. If growth continues at this rate, the increase since 1990 will, it said, reach 150% by 2012- and the Tyndall report seems to put it even higher.
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