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11. Renewables could save US $ 50bn

A minimal use of renewable energy in the United States could help that country to reduce its energy consumption by 11 percent within a decade. The U.S. could save $50 billion a year by 2010 and $135 billion annually by 2020 if it were to implement the Kyoto Protocol, says the World Wildlife Fund. Its report, ‘The American Way to Kyoto’, rejects the claim that the treaty would hurt the US economy.

"Far from being the economically crippling burden that the Bush Administration alleges, U.S. efforts to reach a binding emissions reduction target could initiate a national technological and economic renaissance with cleaner energy, industrial processes and products in the coming decades," says Jennifer Morgan of WWF. "If the Bush Administration were to choose to seriously address Source: climate change and energy policy, the Kyoto Protocol is the way to go."

The report uses models developed by the government’s energy department to quantify the impact of minimum renewable energy production standards, co-generation, new appliance standards, a carbon emissions permit auction, tax credits, increased fuel economy of passenger vehicles and increased use of high-speed rail. It concludes that the U.S. could reduce its energy consumption by 11% by 2010 and by 30% by 2020, and it could stem the rise in carbon emissions to 2.5 % above 1990 levels by 2010. If no action is taken, carbon emissions would rise by 35% by 2010, while the Kyoto treaty would require the U.S. to reduce carbon emissions by 7% by 2012, compared with 1990 emissions.

The report encourages the adoption of Renewable Portfolio Standards to provide "strong incentives" for suppliers to design reliable renewable electricity projects at low cost, and to identify niche applications where the projects have greatest value. The study assumes a RPS that starts at 2% in 2001 and grows to 10 % by 2010 and 20 % in 2020. It excludes municipal solid waste from the category, due to concerns about toxic emissions and also excludes new large-scale hydro as a renewable energy technology, because of environmental concerns over large dams, and says that under a base case scenario, use of non-hydro renewable energy increases by less than 50% by 2010 while, under the ‘climate protection case’, it triples. If all policies are adopted, use of renewables in the U.S. would double, relative to the base case, and would account for 10 percent of total primary energy supplies in 2010.

When the electric sector RPS is combined with the strong energy efficiency policies of this study, the absolute amount of renewables does not increase substantially between 2010 and 2020 because the percentage targets in the electric sector have already been met. A more aggressive renewables policy by 2010 could be considered, and energy-related carbon emissions would be more dramatic than the reductions in energy consumption, because of the shift toward lower-carbon fuels and renewable energy. The WWF also suggests a subsidy for grid-connected solar photovoltaic panels, which would "introduce a small amount of this technology so that it can play a role in the generation mix, seeking to induce technology learning, performance improvement and scale economies, and ultimately increased fuel diversity and another zero emissions option for the longer term." The level is kept small so that costs and price impacts are minimal.

The report also examines the potential contribution from renewables if the world promotes the Clean Development Mechanisms of the Kyoto treaty, and concludes that a carbon price of $20 per tonne of carbon equivalent would induce only 3 megatonne of carbon equivalent per year of new renewable energy project activity by 2010. If the price goes to $100/tCe, renewables would jump to 18 MtCe/year.

The report concludes that "national savings in energy bills would exceed the amount spent on investments in efficient technologies and expenditures for low carbon fuels. By 2010, the average savings would exceed the additional costs of new equipment by $13 billion per year, or nearly $113 per household. When costs and savings of all policies are combined, they yield cumulative net savings of $105 bn in 2010, and $576 bn in 2020".

With the USA’s very hostile position on Kyoto in mind it concludes "There is no need for the Bush administration to reject this important effort to address global warming". See http://www.worldwildlife.org