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13. COP 7 tries to deliver

COP-7, the seventh conference of parties to the UN Climate Change agreement, met in Morocco in Oct/Nov. The event was overshadowed by the grim international situation, and by the the difficulties caused by the USA’s withdrawal from negotiations over the Kyoto treaty - which they oppose.

The USA attended COP 7, but kept on the sidelines - they didn't, as some had feared, introduce a rival set of proposals. Amusingly, the nearest there was to a clear US statement was in an interview in London, when Mr Dahan, senior VP of ExxonMobil, predicted that the US government position "will not be very different from what you are hearing from us" (FT Oct 30). A case of the tail wagging the dog?

At COP-7 the US was however pressured to reconsider their opposition to the treaty. As the COP-7 co-chair Moroccan Environment Minister Mohamed El Yazghi commented "We’d wish they (the Americans) were not outside (the pact), especially after September 11. Their interest is clearly not to be isolated but they run the risk of appearing to defend only their own interests". UK environment minister Michael Meacher put it even more bluntly ‘Maybe the terrible events of September 11 will give it pause to remember its international obligations’.

Robert Watson, chairman of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), had earlier told a Tokyo business conference "I could envision that the U.S. will, sooner or later, be part of the international debate on climate because industries in the U.S. will demand it".

Meanwhile, leaving the USA aside, COP-7 started with the agreements had been reached at COP 6.5 in Bonn earlier in the year, notably on a compromise on including carbon sinks. But there were still plenty of contentious points. In the run up to COP7, the EU set out its starting position, saying it wouldn’t haggle further over sinks In a statement aimed at the so-called Umbrella Group, including Japan, Canada, Russia and Australia, which has fought hard for their forests and farmland to be credited for offsetting carbon dioxide emissions, the EU spokesman Olivier Deleuze said that the text negotiated at the COP-6 meeting in Bonn in July took "ample" account of sinks and that the EU would not be "sidetracked by further haggling over the amounts of sink credits that parties are entitled to".

Specifics like this could easily obscure, and defeat, the key overall aim of COP 7- which was to set the scene for full ratification of the Kyoto accord by the requisite number of countries, in time for the Rio plus 10 conference in the autumn. With the USA out of it, that meant Russia and Japan, the two next largest industrial countries, were the key players. Japan, evidently still under the USA’s influence, wavered a little, and even seemed to be trying to undo some of the agreements settled at COP 6.5. Russia entered the bargaining situation in bullish mood, calling for its emission allowance to be increased from 17 to 33 million tonnes of carbon equivalent. Given that it has vast amounts of unspent carbon credits (the so called ‘hot air’ loophole) since its industrial activity and emissions had declined since the Kyoto accord reference year of 1990, asking for even more seems a little pushy. But Russia, it seems, sees the hot air not as an unfair wind fall, but as a form of foreign aid, which it desperately needs.

Australia was another key player- though less relevant since it backed the U.S. line. Also its position in future was unclear given the upcoming election - with the run up being during COP 7. While the opposition Labor party made favourable noises about Kyoto, PM John Howard (who later won) made the ruling Liberal Party’s view clear ‘we are not going to ratify the Kyoto Agreement until the full cost to Australia of that ratification is known... the only way you can have an effective international agreement on greenhouse emissions is to include the USA and also the developing countries’.

But then here was COP-7 being held in a developing country - and developing countries do seem to be taking climate change increasingly seriously. Some of course have no alternative. As the Guardian reported, ‘a group of nine islands, home to 11,000 people, is the first nation to pay the ultimate price for global warming. For many years the most interesting thing to happen to the Pacific island state of Tuvalu was the sale of its internet domain name, .tv, for $50m (£35m). But, just as Tuvalu has traded in its virtual domain, it is about to lose its real one. The authorities in Tuvalu have publicly conceded defeat to the sea rising around them. Appeals have gone out to the governments of New Zealand and Australia to help in the full-scale evacuation of Tuvalu’s population. After an apparent rebuff from Australia, the first group of evacuees is due to leave for New Zealand next year.’

Interestingly, although, unlike the industrial countries, they were not formally required to do so, the host, Morocco, voluntarily announced a proposed 8% carbon mitigation programme. Topping that, Tunisia put forward a 25% reduction proposal. And Algeria tabled an ambitious carbon sinks proposal- although it seem based on an approach that would fall foul of the rules limiting the use of sinks agreed at COP 6.5.

Even so, despite being a little speculative, you would think these powerful gestures would shame some of the reticent developed nations. But of course, not everyone saw the Kyoto accord as worth the effort, especially without the U.S. on board. Even its supporters recognised that it would only make a very small contribution to emission reductions compared with what is needed to limit climate change. Against that, it was at least a start. That was the mood that seemed on the whole to prevail in Marakesh.

However, some problems emerged. For example, under the rules being discussed at COP-7, the Clean Development Mechanism, which had finally been agreed in principle at COP 6.5, local people will only have 30 days to respond to proposals for projects in their area. So much for effective public participation. The Climate Action Network scurrilously renamed the CDM the Closed Development Mechanism.

There were also worries about the rules on ‘Banking’ emission credits - carrying them over beyond the official commitment period so their value increased. Certainly, with the US out of it, Russia off loading its ‘hot air’ credits, and Canada offering its vast sinks to the U.S., the value of emission credits, might initially be very low- and this might also undermine the CDM.

But when the Ministers arrived for the last three days, things settled down a little, although there was still evidently some last ditch attempts at revisions of the text going forward from COP-7 to WSSD, the World Summit on Sustainable Development, to be held in Johanesburgh in Sept. According to CAN, the USA tried to delete references to climate change, the Kyoto Protocol and the Bonn Agreement - to ensure that the US was not isolated at this gathering. But after a final late night session, agreement was reached on most issues, following an extra 17mtC concession to Russia on sinks.

Next - WSSD in Sept. Some NGO activists are planning how to get to Jo’burgh overland- so as the avoid emissions from air flights: see www.chooseclimate.org/joburghcaravan.

For full coverage of COP-7 see:www.iisd.ca/climate/cop7/index.html