Renew On Line (UK) 35

9. Foresight on Energy

The Foresight process continues with the Energy and Natural Environment Panel having published a new Foresight Energy Futures Task Force report ‘Energy for Tomorrow - Powering the 21st Century’. Looking ahead to 2040, this study focuses on ‘what needs to be done to develop a mix of energy sources and infrastructure that will ensure a competitive and sustainable future for the UK’.

It makes use of four radically differing socio- economic scenarios to provide the context. As outlined in an earlier Foresight report, they range from one in which global markets dominate to one which is based on localised ‘green’ economies, which, you may remember, we labelled ‘hobbit socialism’ (see Renew 131).

These scenarios seem to have taken root in official thinking- they were used in the Cabinet Offices PIU review. The new Foresight report makes use of these scenarios to look at the technological requirements and constraints ahead. What emerges, however, is actually a consensus view on technological developments that would be important to some degree regardless which specific future is considered as likely or desirable.

Basically one of the the key requirements is seen as technolgies and associated infrastructure to enable and support a decentralised, locally embedded energy supply and utilisation system, using smaller scale renewable sources. Somewhat incongruously, given this commitment to small scale options, another key requirement is seen as a re-assessment of the role of nuclear power- in order to ensure security of supply and diversity, and avoid dominance by gas. A bit of coal is also allowed into the mix, with carbon sequestration, on similar grounds.

The conclusion that we naturally liked was the call for more educational provisions to ensure that there were sufficient engineers and technologists to support the expansion of renewables, and general education in relation to energy and environment, to ensure that more of the public understood the issues and requirements of, for example, energy conservation and the renewables.

Just what the OU is doing via its energy course like T265 Renewable Energy, and its soon to emerge follow up T206 Energy for a Sustainable Future and in more general courses like T172 (Technology for a Sustainable Future) and U206 / U216 Environment.

Interestingly there are similar noises concerning the need for education from the nuclear lobby- in particular they have been complaining that there are now few courses around on nuclear energy to replace the existing, but aging, nuclear scientists and technicians. Thus, in its submission to the PIU review, the Royal Academy of Engineering, noted that the industry faced a skills crisis unless fresh investment was made in the next few years because nuclear engineers reaching retirement age were not being replaced by younger candidates. It’s hard to imagine many Universities taking the risk of launching new nuclear courses- it’s hard enough attracting students to existing engineering courses and most of those that come want to study green technologies and their applications.

The Foresight report can be downloaded from: www.foresight.gov.uk/ servlet/ DocViewer/ docnoredirect=2823/

Next? A marine link for renewables

The DTI is exploring the idea of an undersea power link between Scotland and Wales to avoid extra land links - maybe a 2GW HVDC marine cable, as outlined in Renew 128. More in Renew136. There is also news of a giant new £500m 600MW windfarm proposed for the Isle of Lewis; see http://www.edie.net//news/Archive/4948.cfm